Filzen and Gaddis talk Cubs Baseball

Gaddis and I both weren't too busy at work today, so we found some time to trade some emails talking about the Cubs. Here's what transpired:

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MG: Good morning Nate. So I am coming sometime tomorrow afternoon. I figured I would leave sometime after lunch. I might needdirectionsagain because I struggle.


NF: that's cool man, just give me a call. did you see the pictures from spring training, and that wood is going to miss at least the first 2weeks. why don't they just say the first 2 months, so if he actually does heal early, we'll be pumped, instead of the inevitible moving the time table back and back. we should really email all day today, because i don't have a whole lot to do.

MG: Same here. I am doing some exciting spreadsheet work. It is actually value added, but that is all I am doing all day. I have a meeting at 11 with the production guys but that is about it for me. Yeah I saw some pictures from Spring Training. I only saw three on chicagosports.com though and was hoping that I would see more. I actually think that Wood is not that far behind and that they are saying the first two weeks because they only have to use a 4 man rotation for the first two weeks because of all the days off. It will be interesting to see how he feels after he pitches a real 3 innings. It is one thing to feel fine when you are just throwing off the mound and doing long toss, but in actual competition will be interesting. I just pray that he can come back and be a great story this year. I also would love to see Wade Miller get healthy by May or June so that he could possibly start. I would rather see Rusch as a long reliever fill in the gap guy instead of a starter. Oh I love talking about the Cubs.

NF: I completely agree with Rusch. You know, if you look at their season last year, it really turned on his start in that Sunday night game against the Red Sox when they just got shelled. They were never the same after that. I'm not saying the season was his fault or anything, far from it, but that's when it turned, just like it turned in late June 2004 when they blew a 2 run 8th inning lead against the Cardinals. Hopefully there isn't that game this year where we look at it and say, hmm, that could be the start of bad things for the season. I'm a little scared of how much Barrett and Z are going to play in this WBC. And if Lee goes down, it isn't going to be pretty, but Barrett was coming around a little bit last year and we can't have him break down this year. I think Cedeno is going to surprise a lot of people with how well he plays. I think come July he will go into a slump because of the season dragging on, then Dusty can sit him down for a game or two a series for 2 or 3 series, and then he'll start raking in August and really be a leader down the stretch. When do you think Pie is going to get moved up? They probably don't want to pull a Corey and bring him up too soon, but I'd love to see him up for a few games. I have interviews at 11:00, 1:00, and 3:00 and I'm leaving after that one is done, but they will be quick interviews, so let's get it going, position by position, starting with catchers and 1st base. You go first.

MG: C Analysis: Michael Barret and Henry Blanco. I actually feel good about this position and both of these guys are playing in the WBC. The nice thing about Blanco is that I think he is good enough to give Barrett a good amount of rest in the season. I like having the hitters play in the WBC because it will allow them to play in a playoff type atmosphere and they will face better pitchers. Hopefully that means a hot start in April for our WBC players. A good start could be huge this year because of the change over in the division.

1B Analysis: D Lee with no true backup. J Mabry will spell on a rare day. I don't think he will put up last year type numbers. I think he will remain an All-Star, though, but maybe not an MVP level. If the players in front of him are on base more though he could have huge RBI year. I want him to be a line drive hitter and hit the gaps. I don't know his career high in 2Bs, but he is going to beat it this year because he is going to be driving home Pierre and Walker from 2B. You can either provide me your analysis on those guys or start on Middle Infield or both.

NF: I am starting to come around on the catchers. I agree that they may start out hotter because of playing in the Classic and if last year was an abarition for Lee, and he starts out slow again, he will heat up in May this year instead of June like every other year because of the Classic. I honestly forgot about Mabry and am not too worried any more should Lee go down for an extended period of time. Plus, we have Walker who could play first if that happens. I do think Blanco and Barrett are solid behind the plate, and since both of them are capable, either one could start an entire series, and we'd be fine. The only think is I don't see Blanco as a 6 hitter, like I can Barrett.

Onto the middle. I LOVE Todd Walker. I really hope the Cubs don't trade him and give him a majority of the playing time. It's like he says, he chose to play here, and he gives them a solid left handed hitter. Last year he hit .305 (second highest in his career) with 12 home runs in the 2 spot (fourth highest in his career) and 40 rbi, whichwas low, but when you consider no one was on base in front of him, it isn't that surprising. Plus, if you look at their roster, of the everyday players, he, Lee, Ramirez, and Jones are the only ones with playoff experience, and he's only 33. He has at least 3-4 more goodyears in him. Sure, he made some errors last season, but I love having him in the lineup, he's just one of those guys you love to see exceed.

Like I touched on earlier, Ronny Cedeno is really going to surprise people this season, Dusty Baker being one of them. The best thing they can do is let him play every game through May, spell him a bit in June and then count on him to be on base at the bottom of the order by the end of the season. His glove is what is going to be the biggest asset for this team. He's no JJ Hardy, but in the few games Cedeno played,you can see is a gifted fielder. Not since Shaun Dunston have I been excited about a Cubs shortstop. This kid is young and has the abilityto be a top 5-10 shortstop in the NL this year. Neifi is a good back up and that is it. I don't want to see him start multiple games at a time. He should learn how to be a pinch hitter a la Dave Roberts and realize that is the best way he can serve the team, hit.330 as a pinch hitter and just get on base and spell people whenneeded. I know Dusty loves him, but Walker and Cedeno need to play.

MG: 2B and SS: I agree with you on this position totally. I would reallylike to see some defensive breakdowns on Walker from some statistical guys. I will try to find some of this data by the time I show up at your place tomorrow. I think they can give both of these guys breaks with Perez and Hairston, but Walker and Cedeno play. If Cedeno doesn't play well Hendry will never hear the end of not getting Furcal, but I agree with his move. I think Cedeno will finish 3rd in Rookie of the Year behind, Hermadia from Florida and Prince. You can tell we are totally Cub fans, but I just can't wait till August when people are wondering why they didn't see this earlier in the year.

On to the next position. 3B: Ramirez. I hope he can stay healthy and I think he is going to have a great year because more attention is on D Lee and hopefully more people are on base. The question is what kind of protection does he have with people behind him so people have to throw him fastballs late in the count. It looks like it will be Jacque Jones, which isn't bad I guess. I think he needs to step up his fielding though because he lacked at times last year. I want him to remove some of his laziness, but he is still one of the most exciting players with his pop.

NF: Yeah, 3rd is a position which needs to be looked at. Ramirez hasn't proven he can stay healthy all season, and he is definitely a defensive liability. He is the only pure power hitter the Cubs have,and hopefully he can pop 40 this season, or at least high 30's, otherwise they are in trouble. Is Kelton still behind him, or did we trade him last year? I can't remember. Anyway, I like Ramirez, he's young, he's talented, he was a member of the '03 team which gave us so many memories, but he needs to stay healthy, otherwise, we'll have Neifi, Cedeno, Walker, Lee, and that's not intimidating anyone.

LF: Just like Ronny Cedeno, I like Matt Murton. This is going to be a huge question going into the season, can Matt Murton be "the man", is he a Jeff Franceuor level player at this age? He showed some promise when he received playing time last year and was one of the Red Sox' top prospects when they traded him, only none of the Sox fans knew this so they didn't put up a big stink. There are definitely a lot of spots that the Cubs need to prove themselves with this season, and we'll go more in depth in our wrap up session later today, or tomorrow in person (by the way, I am glad Michelle is working tomorrow, because she'd be really pumped to sit around my living room and hear in depth talk about baseball this Saturday after we sat around all last Saturday and talked about the history of NFL drafts. Ballbach, you know what I'm tlaking about),and Murton is for sure one of the big ones. I think he is even more of a "what can he do" than Cedeno. They have a backup plan for Cedeno, but there really isn't one in place if Murton can't hold his own. I don't think it will come to that point, but it just may.

MG: Ok I can't stop reading about baseball. Thanks for getting me goingthis is becoming a very unproductive day. Here is a great site that shows player contracts for each team. I am going to start working on a spreadsheet that shows were teams allocate their money based on probably opening day rosters. I am then going to get this in the hands of Jim Hendry. Last night I also started working a on a letter to Jim Hendry pretty much begging for a job. I am thinking about sending him a hand written letter once in a week until he gives a shot. It might be when I am 50, but I have to pursue my dreams baby. Someday we will run the Cubs,someday, DREAM BIG. http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005_01_06_mlbcontracts_archive.html

MG: Yeah Perez is the backup at 3B which is scary to everyone including Perez's mom. I was looking at the contracts they have expiring after this year and I was shocked. I will bring it along this weekend for our afternoon fireside chat.

MG: My bad had to help move a desk and I wanted to send that e-mail out. Ok CF.

CF: WE FINALLY HAVE A LEADOFF HITTER. I would love to look at what he hit in Wrigley in his career. I always remember him being on base and stealing bases against our weak arm catcher. I think the grass will be tall this year and his bunts will die. He doesn't have a great arm in center actually a rather weak arm, but he can cover some ground. I hope he comes back to his career average instead of what he did last year. More important than his play is his clubhouse influence. People talk about how he brings energy and you need that over 162 games, especially when you don't have amphietenes anymore. My quick comments on LF: Murton is a moneyball guy. Not the speed of Francouer or the pop that Jeff has, but he can get on base. He will have a high OBP and just put the ball in play. He has a future as a 2 hitter because of his ability to take a walk. If he struggles though the backup is Maybry or M. Grissom. That could be scary, but at least they are vetrans. Kelton was traded last year I forgot in what deal but he was traded. I don't know if we have another young OF besides Pie and Murton. Pie will be a September call up because they don't want to rush him. If somebody gets hurt though he could be up quicker than we think. I will like to see how he does in Spring though and hopefully he is still in big league camp when I get to Spring Training.

NF: I am very embarrassed to admit this, but when I went through and was thinking about the outfield, all I could think of was Murton, Jones, and Hariston, I completely forgot about Juan Pierre! I was even wondering who would be playing center field this season, thinking it could be Hairston all year, man am I an idiot. Of Course, Pierre. Even with his weak arm, remember that Pierre played in the cavernous field in Miami, and did fine. Sure, he may let someone score from second without a throw, but without throwing, he may stop someone from advancing, and thus perhaps preventing more runs later in the inning, see find the silver lining in every dark cloud!

RF: All I have to say about Jaques Jones is that he played for the Twins and he is another left handed bat to put in the lineup. Will he add anything more than Jeromy Burnitz? Maybe, but Jeromy knew exactly how to play every ball that came into right field, perfectly, and that is something which is tough to do with the angles at Wrigley. Jeromy was a strike-out king and rarely came up with a hit when they needed it. Jones does have some more offensive pop, but I don't know how he is defensively. They have some question marks right now, and a big one, as always, is pitching, I'll let you handle this one.

MG: RF: Jones will have better numbers than Burnitz did last year. He will also bring some more speed. I consider it an upgrade.

SP: Lets look at possible starters: Big Z: The Horse. He said he wants to win the Cy Young this year and I am totally behind him. Lets pray that he can continue to eat innings. As long as he is healthy, he is as dominate as anyone in the league.

Prior: Very freakish injuries last year. He needs to step it up and maybe even learn to play with some pain. Hopefully he has learned that a little bit and his ceiling is higher than anyone in MLB.

Maddux: We all know what we are going to get. Nothing great anymore, but he stays healthy. I think he will be a bit better this year, because at points last year he was horrible.

Rusch: I would rather see him in the bullpen. Not a bad stop gap for what we pay though.

Williams: Came in to camp 15 pounds lighter and could be a surprise since this is the first time in his career that he is in shape. In the ideal world he is your 5th starter and that is not something I would complain about.

Wood: This is essentially a contract year for Wood so watch out for a big year. I have a feeling his health will come around he will pitch lights out. Once again this is me being optimistic, but contract years matter. He will sit for a few weeks, but hopefully he comes back strong.

Hill: Still young and would be good as a fill in if (more like when) somebody gets hurt. He will probably start at AAA Iowa pitching next to Angel Guzman.

Miller: Hopefully they don't have to rush him and if he ever gets back to his full strength he is a 2 or 3. Hendry has taken this risk with Dempster and Williamson. This is becoming his thing to do and is not a bad way to build veteran depth. As you can tell we have some arms and some good depth. It will all come down to INJURIES. If they are healthy we have a dang good team.

NF: Ah, this definitely got me through the work day. I am home now and will continue with saying that I love having Zambrano in the Cubs starting rotation. Their season hinges on him as much as anything. I agree with the assessments of everyone else except for Williams. Did he show you anything last year which made you believe he could have a run of 5-8 really good games. That is what they need from him, and I don't think he brought it. Although, as you stated, he would be their fifth starter, so it's not that big of a deal I guess.

RP: Man, I love having Matt Wise, Dan Kolb, and Derrick Turnbow to finish off games, oh wait, that's the Brewers. With the exception of Dempster and maybe Williamson, who do the Cubs have down the line who is going to be able to pitch a shut out inning or two? I think Dempster is going to have an exceptionally good year focusing solely on closing, but don't trust the bullpen otherwise

MG: Bullpen: This is where they did there work in the offseason. They signed Howry and Eyre in free agency. Those guys should become 7th and 8th inning guys. That moves Williamson, Ohman, and my favorite Wuertz up in the bullpen order. I think this area needs to be huge for them and hopefully they can find some young guys somewhere in the system. I hope Hendry did his scouting before signing these guys to big years.Hendry's job might be ridding on this season. Whoever is in charge ofthe next offseason determines the team for the next few years. Ok I need to finish stuff up before I leave at 5. I will call you tomorrow. Have a good night and tell your parents I say hi.

-Until next time...