Tobacco Road Classic

What an incredible game; Duke 71 UNC 70. Perhaps even more incredible is that I was able to walk through a sports bar, play volleyball, walk back through the sports bar, drive home, and watch the entire game on tape without having someone or something ruin it for me by telling me how the game ended before I was able to see it.

How did Duke do it? Even though I predicted a 7 or 8 point victory for Carolina, I also wrote the recipe for how to beat this team yesterday. I wrote:

As always, there are some things which need to improve. While the team averages 92.2 points and over 20 assists per game, they also average 17 turnovers. The high scoring usually lets them run away from teams so the turnovers don't hurt them, but if they get into a game in the tournament with a disciplined team who capitalizes on turnovers, plays solid defense, and doesn't turn the ball over itself, UNC could be in some trouble.

The Blue Devils have built themselves on their defense this season. This Duke team can't look for all five of its starters to go for 20+ on any night like they have been able to in the past. The team this season needs scoring from J.J. Redick, Sheldon Williams, and Daniel Ewing. Last night it got the scoring it needed to help its pressure defense thwart the Tar Heel threat. The Devils forced 23 turnovers last night and played disciplined enough to come out of the game with a huge victory.

I am not going to rip Raymond Felton for not driving to the basket in the final seconds, and not just because I am a Duke fan. As I was watching the final seconds and saw him beat Daniel Ewing off the dribble, I thought he was going to drive in for a 5-8 footer, and was surprised when he didn't. After the game he realized his mistake and owned up to it right away. He now realizes that even if the play isn't for him at the end of a game, if he has a chance he should take it. Felton had beaten the entire Duke defense to the rim on 2 of the Tar Heel possessions in the last 3 minutes of the game. He knows he can get to the rim, but was content on running the play his coach called to the end, or at least trying to run the play which was called. Remember, he is only a sophomore, he is still learning how to manage a game, and last night was a great lesson for him.

One thing which concerns me about the game last night for Duke is the fact they only hit one shot from inside the three point line (other than free-throws) in the second half. Strangely similar to the team in 1999 which lost to UCONN for the National Championship, this Duke team will live and die on the three point shot. Luckily freshman DeMarcus Nelson and senior Daniel Ewing both hit back-to-back threes at different points in the second half to keep the lead. Duke won't be able to rely on this every night in March, so they will need to focus on getting the ball inside to Sheldon Williams a little more in the future so they are ready for the tourney.

I was impressed by the way Nelson stepped up in a big game, as well as the 21-22 free throw shooting the Blue Devils did last night. The free throw shooting and an improving Nelson, along with the defense will allow Duke to be in a position to win every game it plays in March. Daniel Ewing and J.J. Redick will decide whether or not they actually win these games.

North Carolina can take away some positives from last night's game as well. Even though they lost a tough game; they can take back to Chapel Hill the fact they had a chance to win at Cameron despite 23 turnovers and Duke going 21-22 from the free throw line. Rashad McCants had an off night shooting just 3-13 from the floor and finishing with just 11 points. McCants will not play this poorly offensively very often, as he is a much better shooter than we saw last night. Also, Sean May was nothing short of brilliant last night, playing very solid defense, banging out a game high 23 points, and fighting for another game high 18 rebounds. His play will have teams even more worried when the shooting of McCants is on.

There is no doubt in my mind UNC will win the rematch (Sunday March 6th at 3:00 on CBS). This was a game in a hostile environment, where they didn't bring their best game, and still had a real chance to win. If they would have won, this would have been like the Patriots' Super Bowl victory, not playing very well, but well enough to win. The Tar Heels need to get over the hump of struggling on the road in the ACC, and they will with an "easy" conference road schedule the rest of the season.

March will be a different story for UNC and they can prove they are ready with a great statement this Sunday at UCONN. By the way, if you missed the game last night, you can catch it on ESPN Classic on Friday at 8:00pm. At any rate, it was another great chapter in the classic novel that is Duke/North Carolina.

-Until next time...