College Hoops IV

I will amend this list as many times as I need to until the actual Final Four to make sure I get it right. My previous Final Four had more errors in it than I originally thought when I first picked it. First of all, I have talked about Wake Forest as a Final Four team all season, and yet they were left off; there is no excuse for this.

Also, Illinois was coming out of the Austin Regional instead of the Chicago Regional because I misinterpreted the rule. A team may not play any games during the NCAA Tournament on its home court. I don't know why I thought Illinois may not be able to in the Chicago Regional after Wisconsin played at Milwaukee last year and Duke or another ACC team always plays in Charlotte.

Here was my list last week:

Albuquerque Regional- Syracuse
Chicago Regional- Kansas
Austin Regional- Illinois
Syracuse Regional- North Carolina

Although three of the teams remain this week; only one is in the same regional.

Here is the list for this week:

Albuquerquer Regional- Wake Forest University Demon Deacons

(At least one reader will enjoy this pick) I have always thought highly of this team, and after they defeated UNC at home last month; they were my top team in the country. A great back-court and solid frontline play will take them a long way in the tournament. Not once during this season have I doubted how good this team is, even after the blowout loss at Illinois early this season. The Deacs are in second place in the ACC right now, only one game back of the tar heels. If Duke can beat UNC tonight, and Wake beats Duke again at Cameron where they play on the 20th, then Wake will have the best chance at the number one seed in the conference tournament.

Even if Wake doesn't win the regular season title, a run to the championship game in the ACC Tournament will set them up for a run to St. Louis. They may not get a number one seed in the tournament, unless they win the conference tourney; but I can't see any team other than UNC beating them on a neutral court right now.

There are two items which may stop them from getting to the Final Four, first is their free throw shooting. Even though they made 50 in a row at one point; the team is shooting only 69% for the season. Also, they average 86.2 points per game but their defense has at times been suspect (read: end of the Duke game and the Georgia Tech loss). Fix these two little holes in the next month, and pack your bags for the midwest.

Chicago Regional- University of Illinois Fighting Illini

I have said so much about this team already, I don't know what else to say. Well, they are the first unanimous number one team in the country since Duke in 1998, they shoot 74% from the free throw line, 40% from three, and average almost twice as many assists as turnovers as a team! They don't really have any challenges left before the post season. They will play their tournament games in Indianapolis, Chicago, and finally St. Louis (a total of 445.01 miles one way). There's the stat of the day.

Austin Regional- Kansas University Jayhawks

They're getting healthier every week, playing better, and believing. Like Illinois, I have said a lot about this team during the season as well. They average only 76 points per game and shoot a worse-than-Wake 66% from the free-throw line. When you don't score many points during games and rely on your defense to hold teams down, you need to be able to shoot better than that from the charity stripe. Only two players on the team shoot better than 74% from the free throw line, and only 5 are better than 70%. This won't help Kansas if they get into a tough game in the tournament and need to hold a lead.

At this point, no loss will damage their confidence, so they need to work on free throw shooting. I am also a little concerned with their assist to turnover ratio, which is a little better than 1:1, but not by much. They turn the ball over almost 15 times per game. For a team that has senior leaders this is just unacceptable. These numbers have to get better, or Kansas won't even make it to Austin.

Syracuse Regional- University of North Carolina Tar Heels

I honestly believe this is the best team in the country. If they go into Duke tonight, and do to the Blue Devils what they have been doing to almost every other team in the ACC (blowing them out), no one should doubt this team. However, it is a rivalry, Duke has owned it of late, and it is at Cameron. While I don't see a blowout, I can see a 7 or 8 point victory for the Tar Heels.

As always, there are some things which need to improve. While the team averages 92.2 points and over 20 assists per game, they also average 17 turnovers. The high scoring usually lets them run away from teams so the turnovers don't hurt them, but if they get into a game in the tournament with a disciplined team who capitalizes on turnovers, plays solid defense, and doesn't turn the ball over itself, UNC could be in some trouble. The team does generate 11 steals per game and shoots well from the free throw line and from three point range at 73% and 42.7%, respectively.

The team is solid through its first 8 players, is coached well, has a great point gaurd, and expects to be in St. Louis. It is going to be hard to keep them out.

Wildcards

As always, becuase I am partial, Duke. A victory tonight would go a long way to giving this team confidence and a little swagger.

Syracuse- the team is athletic enough and plays tough enough defense to get hot and go all the way, but it is a long shot now.

UCONN- the Huskies are never that far from the elite in the country and proved it once again with a win at Syracuse.

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State- both play in a tough conference and will be battle tested heading into March. Each has the coaches and core players to lead them to St. Louis.


I wasn't on the B.C. bandwagon before and I am definitely not on it now. I don't think Kentucky will get there basically because they have lost to the best teams they've played (UNC and Kansas) and haven't really been tested since then. Louisville just isn't good enough, just like any other Big Ten or Big XII team.

As Mr. Tony would say, "There it is, that's the list, I win!"

(Commentary on the UNC/Duke game will be here tomorrow. If you want coverage or commentary on the Wisconsin/Iowa game, you better talk to Gaddis as I won't be home and am taping the Duke/UNC game instead of the Wisconsin game.)

-Until next time...