30 Teams in 30 Days: Houston Astros

I know this second look is late, but our friend Gaddis is in town this weekend, and I had to call the West Salem vs. Holmen girls basketball game last night in Chippewa Falls, which is a nice two hour commute from the home. With that in mind we take our next look at the Houston Astros.

The Astros underwent some major changes since we last saw them in the NLCS. Gone are Jeff Kent and Carlos Beltran. Andy Pettit comes back from injury and Roger Clemens resigned a one year deal. The Stros did add some vets to their bullpen, but overall they lost a lot more than they added. They really didn’t add anything at all.

Houston’s lineup took a huge hit with the losses of Kent and Beltran. I thought they had to do anything in their power to resign Beltran. If it came down to not resigned Roger Clemens fine, you bring back Beltran instead. But it didn’t happen that way and the Astros will pay dearly. They showed Jeff Kent the door and are putting all of their faith in Chris Burke, I just hope he’s ready to play. Jason Lane moves to centerfield now, and Orlando Palmeiro will start the season as their starting right fielder until Lance Berkman comes back.

2004 Lineup

LF Biggio
CF Beltran
1B Bagwell
RF Berkman
2B Kent
3B Ensberg
SS Everett
C Ausmus

2005 Projected Lineup

2B Burke
SS Everett
LF Biggio
1B Bagwell
CF Lane
3B Ensberg
RF Palmeiro*
C Ausmus

This lineup doesn’t scare anyone. Even when Lance Berkman comes back, you assume he moves into the 5 spot and bumps Lane down, but still. Bagwell and Biggio are one year older, your asking a rookie to replace Jeff Kent and lead off, and as for Everett bating second, haven’t they already tried this and were forced to find someone else? Houston’s bench is also nothing to write home about. Orlando Palmeiro, Jose Vizciano, Mike Lamb and Raul Chavez?

The pitching rotation should be interesting. Roy Oswalt is the staff ace and fresh off a 20 win season, but after that there are a lot of question marks. Will Roger Clemens break down? Seriously the guy is 42 years old. Forty-two years old. He is an old power pitcher, the odds are he’s gonna break down sooner or later. What about Andy Pettit. The Astros still really don’t know what to expect from Pettit. He was hurt for almost the entire year last, and the question facing him was could he pitch as well as he did in Yankee Stadium where he had the advantage of a short right field porch.

Wade Miller wasn’t himself last year, largely due to injuries so the Astros let him leave, signing with Boston. I think that was a huge mistake, because if Miller can come back and pitch well he’s good enough to be a 2 or 3 of a staff. Without Miller, after Oswalt, Clemens and Pettit the Astros have a group of guys competing for the last two spots in the rotation. Brandon Backe, Carlos Hernandez, Tim Redding, Brandon Duckworth and Pete Munro will all get a shot to win one of those two jobs. None of those guys had an era lower than 4.30, and only one had a winning record (Backe).

Carlos Hernandez is a bit of an enigma, the Astros have been high on him for the past few years, but he’s never able to stay healthy. Brandon Duckworth is not a major league starter, he’s better suited to be long relief out of the bullpen, same thing goes for Pete Munro. I think Tim Redding will win one of those spots, probably becoming the fifth starter, and Brandon Backe will probably be the fourth.

5 Burning Questions

5. Health
Can Roger Clemens and Andy Pettit stay healthy? If not this team is in big, big trouble. The offense is no longer good enough to make up for pitching inadequacies.

4. Where’s the Beef?
Where does this lineup scare you? Jeff Bagwell batted only .266 with 27 homers and 89 RBI, Lance Berkman is hurt, Jeff Kent and Carlos Beltran are gone, and Morgan Ensberg, Jason Lane and Brad Ausmus (all played in over 100 games) only combined to hit 19 homers last year.

3. Sitting on the bench
How much can you realistically expect from this teams reserves? Orlando Palmeiro and Jose Vizciano are getting older and are more defensive replacements than offensive. Raul Chavez is another guy who is great defensively, just needs to pick up on the hitting part. Mike Lamb is the one guy who stands out, he can add pop off the bench and could feasibly replace the young Morgan Ensberg in the starting lineup if this offense struggles.

2. Crap-Iron
Are we supposed to believe that ole scrap-iron Phil Garner is that great of a manager and just hasn’t done that well because he was coaching bad teams? Maybe there’s a reason why this guy can only get jobs coaching bad teams.

1. 4 and 5
Who will round out the pitching staff, and how well can you expect them to do? If the bottom two spots struggle, Oswalt, Clemens and Pettit will have pressure on them to win almost every game they pitch in.

Fearless Predictions

Brandon Backe and Tim Redding will win the last two spots in the rotation
Craig Biggio’s play will significantly fall off.
Andy Pettit will have a better year than Roger Clemens.
The Astros will dump payroll at the trading deadline.
Jeff Kent and Carlos Beltran will be sorely missed.
Wade Miller’s play this year will make the Astros wish they retained him.
The Astros will finish in fourth place in the NL Central.