Cubs in 2005

With only 52 short days left until the Cubs play their first spring training game, many questions still remain. These include; did the Cubs do the right thing in not going after free agent darling Carlos Beltran, will Sosa in 2005 be closer to Sosa of 1998-2003, will the starting rotation stay healthy enough to live up to the expectations, who will play left field, and will Wrigley last another season? Well, I'm not going to pretend like I have the answers to all or any of these questions, but you will at least get to read what I think about each of the situations facing the Cubs in 2005.

First of all with Carlos Beltran, I do think it was good the Cubs did not sign him. While I was one of the very first people to begin praying for Beltran to become a Cub this offseason, I believe Jim Hendry did a wonderful job sitting on the sidelines and watching the proceedings with interest, but not blind ambition. Beltran could have been affordable had it not been for his coming out playoff party. After Beltran batted .435 with 8 home runs, 14 RBI, had a slugging percentage of 1.022, and an OPS of 1.557 in 12 games against the Braves and Cardinals, uber agent Scott Boras could see nothing but dollar signs and priced just about every team in the league out of the Beltran bidding. Beltran had a great post season, one to remember for years, but you have to wonder if he can continue to put up these kinds of numbers for an entire season (which is almost impossible) or if he could even do this in another post season. His career stats are nice, but are not near the kind of numbers he put up in the 2004 post season. He has batted .284 and has struck out almost 100 times a season for his career. The other numbers aren't exactly stellar either. His batting average after he joined the Astros in July was a mediocre .258, his second lowest average in his career.

Having looked at all of these stats, the fact remains Beltran is an outstanding talent, a switch hitter with power, speed, a glove, and a good arm. He is only 27 and is entering the "prime" of his career, and is a player any team would love to have. However, I do think the Cubs made a good decision in not giving him $119 million for seven years like the Mets did. Sure, Beltran had great games on the North Side, but the Cubs simply could not afford to pay him this much money, nor should they have tried. Beltran knew how well he played in Wrigley and this is all Hendry should have told him. Plus, the core players the Cubs have like Patterson, Ramirez (who is due a huge payoff at the end of this season), and Barrett, not to mention the starting rotation, should have been enough to make Carlos want to play there. I think $65-75 million for 5 years would have been sufficient enough for the Cubs to persuade Beltran to come to Chicago. Granted, this isn't much less than the Mets gave him, but the extra two years is huge. What if he gets hurt and never gets back to his ability? The Mets are stuck with a huge contract for a broken-down player.

Another issue is the large market the Mets play in. Obviously the largest market in the world. After having played in small markets, Kansas City and Houston, you have to wonder is Beltran will be able to handle the media and still be able to perform at a high level. One thing going for him in New York is the fact Pedro Martinez will probably be looked to as more of the "savior" of the Mets. Had Beltran signed with the smaller market Cubs, he not only would have been expected to produce the amazing numbers he did this past post season again, he would have been expected to have those numbers all season, lead the Cubs to the playoffs, and to a World Series title. Not only this, but he would have had the added pressure of probably replacing the latest "Mr. Cub" in Sammy Sosa. This may have been too much pressure for Beltran and ultimately probably would have led to his being unhappy in Chicago.

Again, I feel Hendry did a great job assessing the Beltran situation. The only thing he has to do now is find a left fielder and not trade for Cliff Floyd. While the Cubs need left handed power, Floyd would not be the answer. The fact is the guy is hurt too much (he's only played over 121 games 3 times in his career) and wouldn't be a good fit in Chicago. Hendry needs to get Mags to come over from the South Side, which is something Ordonez has said he would like. The only problem is with this mysterious injury he was stricken with this past season. If somehow the Cubs could work a one year see-if-you're-healthy deal with Mags, it could prove very worth while. The problem with this is Ordonez's agent is also Scott Boras who always wants a lot of years and a lot of money for his players. Hopefully he will understand that Ordonez has been hurt and needs to prove himself again and wait for a big contract after the 2005 season. The Cubs cannot be contenders with Jason Dubois, Jose Macias, and Todd Hollandsworth platooning in left field. This is the biggest area of concern for Hendry. Without a solid left fielder, the Cubs aren't going to have to worry about blowing any saves because they won't have too many leads to protect.

That's about it for this post, the rest of the situations will be dealt with in the coming days. But for now, here's my 2005 Cubs prediction (subject to change at each posting) 87-75.